Methodology
How We Read the Cycle
Our analysis is rooted in the cycle frameworks pioneered by Camel Finance and Bob Loukas. We combine automated cycle detection, contrarian positioning, and strict risk management into a repeatable process.
The Camel Finance Approach
CF Cycle Trading Indicator
The CF Indicator automatically detects and charts live cycle lows directly on your TradingView chart. These turning points help identify cleaner, more strategic entries into swing trades — removing guesswork and letting cycles speak for themselves.
Confirmation Stack
Camel Finance doesn't rely on a single signal. The methodology stacks multiple confirmations:
- 01Cycle Low Detection — Automated identification of daily cycle lows using the CF Indicator
- 0210-SMA Crossover — Price reclaiming the 10-period simple moving average confirms the low is in
- 03DSS Bressert — The oscillator developed by Walter Bressert provides momentum confirmation
- 04Trendline Break — Breaking the declining trendline from the prior cycle high adds structural confirmation
The Contrarian Edge
Camel Finance is known for calling cycle tops when euphoria peaks and buying cycle lows when fear dominates. The contrarian stance isn't about being different for its own sake — it's about recognizing that cycles turn when sentiment is most extreme. When everyone agrees the trend will continue forever, the cycle is likely near exhaustion.
The Bob Loukas Framework
The 4-Year Macro Cycle
Bob Loukas popularized the observation that Bitcoin moves in roughly 4-year macro cycles — from bear market bottom to bull market top and back. This framework, documented in his “Bitcoin's 4-Year Journey” video series, provides the macro context for all shorter-term analysis.
The 60-Day Cycle
Within the macro cycle, Bitcoin forms intermediate lows approximately every 60 days. This is not a fixed rule — it can be shorter or longer — but represents a natural market rhythm. The 60-day cycle is the primary timing tool for swing entries.
Left vs. Right Translation
The most powerful concept in Bob's toolkit is cycle translation — where the cycle peaks relative to its midpoint:
Right Translation
Peak occurs after the midpoint (day 30+). Signals strength and bullish continuation. The ideal setup — ride the right translated cycle until exhaustion.
Left Translation
Peak occurs before the midpoint (before day 30). Signals weakness and bearish bias. Expect the cycle low to break below the prior low — exercise caution.
The 10-DMA Confirmation
When price is in the expected cycle low window and breaks back above the 10-day moving average, odds increase significantly that a new cycle has begun. This simple but powerful signal is the primary entry trigger in Bob's framework.
The Cycora Synthesis
Cycora combines both frameworks into a unified approach:
- 01Macro positioning — Use Bob Loukas's 4-Year Cycle to determine whether we are in a bull or bear regime. This sets the directional bias.
- 02Intermediate timing — Track the 60-day cycle and its translation to identify the current phase. Right-translated cycles get aggressive positioning; left-translated cycles get defensive.
- 03Daily execution— Use Camel Finance's CF Indicator stack (cycle low + 10-SMA + DSS Bressert + trendline break) for precise entries.
- 04Contrarian conviction — Push trades until the cycle says stop. Be contradictive. The crowd is usually wrong at turning points. It's OK to be wrong on individual trades — the process makes money over time.
- 05Risk management — Every position has a defined invalidation (cycle low break). Protect capital first. The cycle gives you the edge; discipline keeps it.