Cycle Framework
Nested Cycles, One Framework
Markets operate on multiple timeframes simultaneously. The Cycora framework nests three cycles — macro, intermediate, and daily — to provide context, timing, and execution signals.
How Cycles Nest Together
4-YEAR MACRO CYCLE
60-DAY INTERMEDIATE CYCLES (×20-25 per macro cycle)
DAILY CYCLES (×2-3 per intermediate cycle)
Each larger cycle provides context for the smaller cycles within it. Alignment across all three = highest conviction trades.
4-Year Macro Cycle
~4 Years (1,275 days ± variance)Source: Bob Loukas
The overarching cycle that governs Bitcoin's bull and bear markets. Each 4-year cycle contains a bear phase (accumulation), a recovery phase, a bull phase (euphoria), and a distribution/top phase. This cycle has historically aligned with Bitcoin halving events, though macro liquidity conditions increasingly influence timing.
Key Points
- ▸Sets the macro directional bias — bull or bear regime
- ▸Historically aligns with halving events (~every 4 years)
- ▸Contains multiple intermediate (60-day) cycles within it
- ▸The bull phase typically features right-translated intermediate cycles
- ▸The bear phase features left-translated intermediate cycles
- ▸Cycle lows represent generational buying opportunities
Cycle Phases
Phase 1
Accumulation
Bear market bottom. Maximum fear, minimum price. Smart money accumulates.
Phase 2
Recovery
Price begins trending up. Disbelief dominates. Early cycle — best risk/reward.
Phase 3
Bull / Euphoria
Strong uptrend with right-translated cycles. Mainstream attention. FOMO kicks in.
Phase 4
Distribution
Cycle top. Left-translated cycles appear. Smart money distributes to retail.
60-Day Intermediate Cycle
~40-80 Days (avg ~60)Source: Bob Loukas
The primary swing-trading cycle. Bitcoin forms an intermediate low approximately every 60 days. This is not a fixed rule — it can stretch or compress — but represents the natural market rhythm that creates tradeable swings within the macro trend.
Key Points
- ▸Primary timing tool for swing trade entries and exits
- ▸10-DMA breakout is the key confirmation signal for a new cycle
- ▸Left vs. right translation reveals the cycle's character
- ▸Right translation = strength, lean in aggressively
- ▸Left translation = weakness, play defense or sit out
- ▸Cycle failure (breaking prior low) is the invalidation signal
Cycle Phases
Phase 1
Cycle Low
Price forms a trough. Fear peaks. The CF Indicator fires. Wait for 10-DMA confirmation.
Phase 2
Early Cycle
Price reclaims 10-DMA. DSS Bressert confirms. Trendline breaks. This is the entry zone.
Phase 3
Mid Cycle
Momentum builds. Watch for translation — is the peak forming before or after day 30?
Phase 4
Late Cycle
Momentum fades. Time is running out. If right-translated, ride it. If left, exit or hedge.
Daily Cycle
~20-45 DaysSource: Camel Finance
The shortest actionable cycle. The CF Cycle Trading Indicator is optimized for daily cycle detection, automatically marking cycle lows on the chart. Multiple daily cycles nest within each 60-day intermediate cycle, providing fine-grained entry and exit points.
Key Points
- ▸CF Indicator automates daily cycle low detection on TradingView
- ▸Combines with DSS Bressert and 10-SMA for confirmation
- ▸2-3 daily cycles typically nest within each 60-day cycle
- ▸Works across crypto, equities, bonds, and commodities
- ▸Predictive low-range boxes help anticipate the next low window
- ▸4-hour chart can be used to refine daily signals further
Cycle Phases
Phase 1
Cycle Low
CF Indicator detects the low. Price is in the predictive low-range box.
Phase 2
Confirmation
10-SMA reclaimed. DSS Bressert bullish. Trendline broken. Enter the trade.
Phase 3
Markup
Price trends higher. Let the cycle work. Push until unreasonable.
Phase 4
Exhaustion
Momentum divergences appear. Time window running out. Prepare for the next cycle.
The Process Makes Money
Individual trades will fail. Cycles will stretch or truncate. But the framework — nested cycles, confirmed entries, contrarian conviction, strict risk management — makes money over time. That's the Cycora edge.